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S38, debt & governance framework · October 2026 · scenario model
Three separate ledgers. No automatic netting.
The S38 model keeps illustrative gross efficiency, National Service program cost and fuel purchaser sensitivities apart, because they measure different things. Adding them together would produce a number with no meaning.
- proposed systems
- 38
- preliminary illustrative gross scenarios
- 11
- uncosted
- 27
- verified net impact not available
- N/A
Gross scenario, not a net or guaranteed benefit. Figures are inherited modelling assumptions in constant dollars. Transition costs, new operating responsibilities, National Service costs, inflation and discounting are excluded. No government-wide net saving is established.
- Illustrative gross
- Modelled potential before costs; not realised or independently audited savings.
- Uncosted
- No defensible savings amount is available.
- Purchaser saving
- A reduction in customer bills that may be offset elsewhere; not automatically a net national gain.
- Program cost
- New expenditure that must be reported separately from efficiency claims.
- Verified net — not available
- Independently audited realised cash savings less all incremental recurring and transition costs. No verified whole-program net amount exists.
Ledger 1 · Illustrative gross
Eleven-system gross efficiency scenario.
Default: 10% of expenditure addressable and 15% of that saved — a mature gross saving of 1.5% of the assumed baseline. Adjust either assumption; the result scales proportionally from the document's $6.2625bn default.
2%20%
5%30%
Effective gross rate: 1.50% of baseline
Mature annual gross (illustrative)
$6.2625bn
10 yrs gross
$38.514375bn
20 yrs gross
$101.139375bn
30 yrs gross
$163.764375bn
Verified net: not available. Cumulative figures are gross before transition and operating costs and are not a promised fiscal dividend.
Show values as a table
| Year | Annual gross | Cumulative gross |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $0.000bn | $0.000bn |
| 2 | $0.626bn | $0.626bn |
| 3 | $1.566bn | $2.192bn |
| 4 | $2.818bn | $5.010bn |
| 5 | $4.071bn | $9.081bn |
| 6 | $5.010bn | $14.091bn |
| 7 | $5.636bn | $19.727bn |
| 8 | $6.263bn | $25.989bn |
| 9 | $6.263bn | $32.252bn |
| 10 | $6.263bn | $38.514bn |
| 11 | $6.263bn | $44.777bn |
| 12 | $6.263bn | $51.039bn |
| 13 | $6.263bn | $57.302bn |
| 14 | $6.263bn | $63.564bn |
| 15 | $6.263bn | $69.827bn |
| 16 | $6.263bn | $76.089bn |
| 17 | $6.263bn | $82.352bn |
| 18 | $6.263bn | $88.614bn |
| 19 | $6.263bn | $94.877bn |
| 20 | $6.263bn | $101.139bn |
| 21 | $6.263bn | $107.402bn |
| 22 | $6.263bn | $113.664bn |
| 23 | $6.263bn | $119.927bn |
| 24 | $6.263bn | $126.189bn |
| 25 | $6.263bn | $132.452bn |
| 26 | $6.263bn | $138.714bn |
| 27 | $6.263bn | $144.977bn |
| 28 | $6.263bn | $151.239bn |
| 29 | $6.263bn | $157.502bn |
| 30 | $6.263bn | $163.764bn |
Ramp factors years 1–10: 0%, 10%, 25%, 45%, 65%, 80%, 90%, 100%, 100%, 100%; 100% thereafter. No confidence interval is shown because no defensible statistical bounds exist.
| System | Annual gross | 10 yrs | 20 yrs | 30 yrs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S01 Police | $256.5m | $1.58bn | $4.14bn | $6.71bn |
| S02 Healthcare | $2,320.5m | $14.27bn | $37.48bn | $60.68bn |
| S03 Aged Care | $597.0m | $3.67bn | $9.64bn | $15.61bn |
| S04 Fire and Emergency | $111.0m | $0.68bn | $1.79bn | $2.90bn |
| S05 Education and Teachers | $1,365.0m | $8.39bn | $22.04bn | $35.69bn |
| S06 Childcare | $306.0m | $1.88bn | $4.94bn | $8.00bn |
| S07 Ambulance | $96.0m | $0.59bn | $1.55bn | $2.51bn |
| S08 Justice and Corrections | $141.0m | $0.87bn | $2.28bn | $3.69bn |
| S12 Disability Services | $766.5m | $4.71bn | $12.38bn | $20.04bn |
| S13 Child Protection | $169.5m | $1.04bn | $2.74bn | $4.43bn |
| S15 Vocational Education | $133.5m | $0.82bn | $2.16bn | $3.49bn |
The other 27 systems have no validated estimate and contribute nothing to this total. That is not a judgement that they would save nothing; it means no defensible figure exists.
Ledger 2 · Program cost
National Service direct budget.
Recurring new expenditure. Reported separately from efficiency claims and never subtracted from or added to Ledger 1 here.
100000400000
1500070000
Hypothetical annual direct cost
$8.75bn
- 200,000 × $25,000$5.00bn
- 250,000 × $35,000$8.75bn
- 300,000 × $45,000$13.50bn
These are hypothetical direct-cost cases, not official population, enrolment or funding estimates. Full establishment, capital, administration, supervision, training, health, safeguarding and indirect economic costs must also be assessed.
Service design and four testsLedger 3 · Purchaser saving sensitivity
Fuel price sensitivity.
A change in what purchasers spend, not a government saving or net national gain. Price reductions and pass-through are not assured.
0c30c
× hypothetical 50 billion litres a year
$5.0bn
A hypothetical 50 billion litres multiplied by a retail price reduction is a purchaser-expenditure sensitivity, not a forecast, fiscal saving or net economic gain. Domestic production and refining can cost more than imports; price reductions and pass-through are not assured.
Import displacement is not automatically an Australian fiscal saving. Net benefit depends on domestic production versus import-parity costs, capital costs, crude quality, refinery yield, exchange rates and the value of exports foregone.
Separately, $4.12/GJ across a hypothetical 500 PJ equals $2.06bn in annual gas purchasing expenditure. This is another sensitivity, not an independently verified outcome.
Petroleum Development ProgramFiscal methodology
How a gross scenario would become a verified net figure.
Step 1
Reconcile the baseline
Establish expenditure by function, jurisdiction and accounting year. Reconcile Commonwealth–state transfers and remove duplicated accounting entries.
Step 2
Separate removable and transferred costs
Identify genuinely cashable costs rather than costs shifted to a national authority. Include regional staffing and new regulatory responsibilities.
Step 3
Cost every year of transition
Estimate capital and operating expenditure including parallel running, contracts, data migration, pensions, legal work and cybersecurity.
Step 4
Evaluate service and equity outcomes
Use verified before-and-after measures, independent counterfactuals where practical, and distributional and regional equity assessments.
Step 5
Calculate net fiscal impact
Realised cashable savings minus incremental recurring costs minus transition costs. Report economic and social benefits separately.
Step 6
Test long-term uncertainty
Publish justified discount rates and sensitivities for costs, savings, delays and service performance.
Step 7
Audit before booking benefits
Require independent audit and parliamentary reporting before forecast savings are booked or reinvested.
Model limitations
- Only 11 systems have inherited illustrative gross-savings amounts; the other 27 have no validated savings estimate.
- The scenario assumes 10% of expenditure is addressable and 15% of that amount is saved: a mature gross saving of 1.5% of the assumed baseline.
- Amounts are constant-dollar scenario values. Inflation, discounting and financing effects are excluded.
- Some expenditure categories may overlap. Baselines and intergovernmental transfers must be reconciled before aggregation.
- Full transition costs, new operating responsibilities and National Service costs are not included in the gross-savings total.
Excluded and uncosted
- State institutional closure and constitutional/legal work
- Workforce transfer, redeployment, pensions and industrial obligations
- Property, debt, contracts and stranded liabilities
- Cybersecurity, IT replacement, data migration and dual-running
- Litigation, regional service expansion and new national authorities
- National Service establishment, recurring costs and economic opportunity costs
Separately labelled context
Independently sourced official evidence.
The evidence package below belongs to the earlier economic model v1.1 (baseline 30 June 2025). It remains published for scrutiny of official baselines. Its illustrative inputs are superseded by the S38 scenario above and are not combined with it.
ABS Government Finance Statistics Productivity Commission service data Infrastructure Australia appraisal guidance
Last reviewed 8 September 2026; next review due 30 September 2027.
Productivity Commission
Check the latest Report on Government Services tables, errata, service definitions and jurisdictional comparability notes.
Infrastructure Australia
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Commonwealth, state and territory agencies
Check budget papers, annual reports, workforce releases and finance-department updates for all nine jurisdictions, recording the release and table used.