S38 · 38 proposed systems11 preliminary illustrative gross scenarios27 uncosted systemsVerified whole-program net savings: not available
S20System 20 of 38

National Fuel Security, Domestic Refining and Energy Independence

Establish a National Petroleum Development Program integrating Australian oil field development, refining capacity, domestic supply security and long-term fuel independence, alongside fuel contingency planning and regional emergency logistics.

S38, debt & governance framework · October 2026Status: proposed policyUncosted
On this page · Fuel Security, Domestic Refining and Energy Independence

01

What changes, and what people should notice.

Operational reform

Establish a National Petroleum Development Program integrating Australian oil field development, refining capacity, domestic supply security and long-term fuel independence, alongside fuel contingency planning and regional emergency logistics.

What Australians could experience

Greater domestic fuel security; potentially lower petrol, diesel and gas costs where production and infrastructure efficiencies are passed through; stronger regional employment; reduced overseas refining dependence; and improved fuel resilience for freight, farming, defence and emergency services.

Intended, conditional improvements — not guaranteed outcomes.

National framework

One consistent set of rules and standards for fuel security, domestic refining and energy independence across Australia.

Regional decisions

Communities keep a direct say over local routes, planning decisions and environmental consultation.

Local delivery

Frontline staff and service points remain in communities; duplicated back-office administration is the target, not frontline capacity.

02

Strategy and proposed delivery priorities.

  1. 1

    Establish a public baseline for fuel security, domestic refining and energy independence: laws, regulators, service locations, staff, contracts, information assets and spending in every jurisdiction.

  2. 2

    Develop system-specific national standards and safeguards around the specific reform proposed — establish a national petroleum development program integrating australian oil field development, refining capacity, domestic supply security and long-term fuel independence, alongside fuel contingency planning and regional emergency logistics — and test it against the stated protections before it is adopted.

  3. 3

    Pilot the model in representative metropolitan, regional and remote settings, with results published before migration is considered.

  4. 4

    Transfer functions only with lawful authority, workforce consultation and verified uninterrupted service; keep frontline delivery regional and local.

Places & Resilience group priorities

  • Establish common appraisal, asset inventory and data standards so projects can be compared honestly.
  • Retain community consultation, environmental assessment and First Nations engagement as gates, not formalities.
  • Invest only where independently appraised costs, risks and regional benefits justify it.

Public register · proposal status, not a delivery claim

Evidence and the next decision gate.

Proposed policy onlyCurrent public stage

No system-specific evidence bundle is published or verified here. No approval, funding decision, authorised transfer or completed delivery is claimed.

Prerequisites before a design or pilot decision

  1. 01Earn a federal governing mandate; an election result at another level does not confer national powers.
  2. 02Publish independent legal advice on constitutional authority, affected laws and any state or territory agreement required before changing institutions or transferring functions.
  3. 03Establish a jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction baseline for National Fuel Security, Domestic Refining and Energy Independence, consult affected workers and communities, and publish the lawful options before deciding whether to proceed.
  4. 04Assess service continuity, regional access, workforce and the stated protections (Competition, regional supply, transparent emergency powers) before any authorised design or pilot.
  5. 05Publish independently reviewable transition and ongoing costs; keep estimates, purchaser effects and gross scenarios separate from verified net savings.

Next decision gate

If a federal governing mandate is earned, publish the National Fuel Security, Domestic Refining and Energy Independence baseline, legal options, consultation findings and independently reviewable costs. Only then decide publicly whether to proceed to detailed design or an authorised pilot; no transfer or rollout is implied.

A proposed gate is a condition for a future decision, not evidence that the decision has been made.

Supporting evidence to publish

These are evidence requirements for this proposal, not completed research or verified findings.

  • Legal and institutional baseline

    Map the laws, decision rights, regulators, providers and intergovernmental responsibilities that apply to National Fuel Security, Domestic Refining and Energy Independence; identify constitutional questions and any required consent.

  • Service and outcome baseline

    Publish baseline and annual data on access, processing time, safety/quality, regional equity, complaints, gross efficiency, transition spending and verified net financial impact for national fuel management.

  • Cost and feasibility assessment

    Validate the addressable baseline and these cost drivers — Aggregated purchasing, planning, logistics. — then publish transition, parallel-running and ongoing costs separately from benefits.

  • Safeguards and consultation record

    Document how the stated protections will be tested (Competition, regional supply, transparent emergency powers), who was consulted, and how service continuity and regional equity will be monitored.

Official source starting points

These public bodies may hold relevant baseline material. Links do not mean that evidence has been collected, independently verified, or that any body endorses S38.

Extended policy

National Petroleum Development Program

Component 1

Australian oil field development

Catalogue producing, suspended and undeveloped fields by basin. Independently verify reserves, contingent resources, crude grade, production decline, recoverable barrels, approvals, infrastructure and capital/operating costs. Prioritise commercially feasible projects.

Component 2

Australian refining capacity

Audit Geelong and Lytton/Brisbane refinery configuration and utilisation. Test domestic crude and condensate compatibility. Compare upgrades, new facilities, co-processing and alternatives on lifecycle cost per litre, specifications, emissions and distribution.

Component 3

Domestic supply security

Assess supply arrangements, contractual and trade constraints, competition, emergency allocation, strategic storage, shipping and regional logistics. Preserve transparent price formation and assess producer investment impacts.

Component 4

Practical fuel independence

Compare additional Australian output with sustainable biofuels, synthetic fuels, electrification, demand reduction and reserves. Model current-policy, expanded-domestic and maximum-practical-independence scenarios.

Accounting boundary · Import displacement is not automatically an Australian fiscal saving. Net benefit depends on domestic production versus import-parity costs, capital costs, crude quality, refinery yield, exchange rates and the value of exports foregone.

Supply pathways compared on discounted 10, 20 and 30-year net costs

A · Current import-heavy trajectory

Assess the cost, reliability and import dependence of the current-policy supply pathway.

B · Targeted domestic development

Test selected Australian oil production and refinery upgrades against full costs and commercial feasibility.

C · Maximum practical independence

Combine petroleum, biofuels, synthetic fuels, electrification and strategic reserves. Compare discounted 10-, 20- and 30-year net costs rather than gross litres displaced alone.

No pathway has yet been costed. Results will be published only after independent appraisal.

Program phases

  1. Years 1–2

    Map and validate

    Map fields and resource categories. Validate crude, condensate, refinery and demand baselines. Publish independent cost and legal assessments.

  2. Years 3–5

    Test commercial feasibility

    Complete field-by-field and refinery feasibility studies. Run transparent competitive project selection and pilot domestic and alternative-fuel supply arrangements.

  3. Years 6–10

    Invest only where justified

    Develop approved, commercially justified production, refining, storage and distribution projects. Measure realised import displacement and retail price effects.

  4. Years 11–20

    Expand proven options

    Expand proven projects, alternative fuels and electrification. Review environmental, regional and employment outcomes.

  5. Years 21–30

    Reassess independence

    Review practical independence targets, lifecycle costs and resilience as demand and technology change.

Purchaser-expenditure sensitivity — not a fiscal saving

Hypothetical 50 billion litres a year multiplied by a retail price reduction.

Fuel price sensitivity: annual purchaser expenditure change by cents per litre
Price reductionAnnual purchaser changeRelative size
5c/L$2.5bn
10c/L$5.0bn
20c/L$10.0bn
30c/L$15.0bn

A hypothetical 50 billion litres multiplied by a retail price reduction is a purchaser-expenditure sensitivity, not a forecast, fiscal saving or net economic gain. Domestic production and refining can cost more than imports; price reductions and pass-through are not assured.

Separately, $4.12/GJ across a hypothetical 500 PJ equals $2.06bn in annual gas purchasing expenditure. This is another sensitivity, not an independently verified outcome.

Required appraisal

Report capital and operating costs, government support, feedstock suitability, production rates, foregone exports, trade impacts, import displacement, actual retail price pass-through, emissions, storage and logistics, and 10/20/30-year net present values with discount-rate sensitivities. Do not add consumer transfers or import reductions to the government-efficiency scenario.

Proposed public reporting measures

  • Crude and condensate by basin and reserve classificationNot yet reported
  • Refinery feedstock compatibility and refined output by productNot yet reported
  • Import reliance and consumer price effectsNot yet reported
  • Capital investment and environmental impactsNot yet reported
  • Independently audited national net benefitNot yet reported

Program protections

Independent resource verification, open procurement, environmental and First Nations consultation, worker safety, regional access, competition review, transparent export-contract treatment and annual reporting of actual costs, pump-price outcomes and verified net economic impacts.

03 · proposed, not commenced

Phased rollout.

  1. Years 1–2

    Baseline and design

    Inventory relevant laws, regulators, service locations, staff, contracts, information assets and expenditures; identify overlaps with adjacent systems; consult affected workers, communities and users.

  2. Years 3–5

    Standards and pilots

    Develop system-specific national standards, safeguards and secure interoperability; pilot the proposed national fuel management model in representative metropolitan, regional and remote settings; publish evaluation results.

  3. Years 6–10

    Controlled migration

    Transfer functions only after required approvals, establish regional delivery capability, migrate records and credentials, train personnel, operate parallel systems where necessary and verify uninterrupted service.

  4. Years 11–30

    Improvement

    Expand capacity, retire duplicative administration only where demonstrated, modernise platforms, reinvest verified efficiencies and review outcomes at five-year intervals.

04

Cost drivers and financial status.

proposed systems
38
preliminary illustrative gross scenarios
11
uncosted
27
verified net impact not available
N/A

Cost drivers · Aggregated purchasing, planning, logistics.

No savings estimate yet

Annual mature gross savings and 10-, 20- and 30-year cumulative amounts remain unquantified. Before estimating, define the addressable expenditure baseline, transition cost, ongoing operating cost, service benefits and potential overlap with other systems.

Before any estimate is published

  1. 1.Define the addressable expenditure baseline
  2. 2.Cost every year of transition
  3. 3.Estimate ongoing operating costs
  4. 4.Identify service benefits separately
  5. 5.Reconcile overlap with other systems
Illustrative gross
Modelled potential before costs; not realised or independently audited savings.
Uncosted
No defensible savings amount is available.
Purchaser saving
A reduction in customer bills that may be offset elsewhere; not automatically a net national gain.
Program cost
New expenditure that must be reported separately from efficiency claims.
Verified net — not available
Independently audited realised cash savings less all incremental recurring and transition costs. No verified whole-program net amount exists.

05

Protections and risks.

System-specific protections

  • Competition
  • regional supply
  • transparent emergency powers

Risks to monitor

Monitor service disruption, privacy, workforce impacts, unequal regional access and unintended consequences.

Democratic authority

Legally assess and obtain constitutional, referendum and any applicable state-consent approvals before institutional abolition or irreversible transfers.

National standards, regional delivery

Set consistent rights and technical standards nationally, with regional decision-making, accessible service offices and local frontline delivery.

Independent institutions

Protect courts, electoral bodies, integrity agencies, regulators and police oversight from partisan direction.

Uninterrupted public services

Protect emergency services, benefits, licensing, schools and healthcare throughout migration. Dual-running is a cost to plan for, not a reason to put continuity at risk.

Financial integrity

Report cashable savings, noncash efficiencies, transition spending, new operating costs and service outcomes separately. No government-wide net savings claim is established.

Participation and equity

Protect accessibility, remote communities, First Nations interests, worker rights, privacy, independent complaints and review.

06

Outcome measures to establish.

Publish baseline and annual data on access, processing time, safety/quality, regional equity, complaints, gross efficiency, transition spending and verified net financial impact for national fuel management. Baselines come first; targets will only be set once independent baselines exist.

Access

Who can reach the service, where, and how quickly — including remote and assisted access.

Baseline: to be established

Processing time

Elapsed time from application, referral or call to decision or service.

Baseline: to be established

Safety and quality

Incidents, clinical or technical quality indicators and independent inspection findings.

Baseline: to be established

Regional equity

Differences in access and outcomes between metropolitan, regional and remote communities.

Baseline: to be established

Complaints

Volume, resolution time and independent review outcomes.

Baseline: to be established

Gross efficiency

Administrative cost changes before transition and new operating costs are subtracted.

Baseline: to be established

Transition spending

Every year of parallel running, migration, workforce, legal and technology expenditure.

Baseline: to be established

Verified net financial impact

Audited cashable savings minus recurring and transition costs.

Baseline: to be established

Living policy status

This page is part of a living policy library. Strategy papers, consultation responses, independent costings and delivery evidence will be added here as they are prepared. Nothing on this page reports completed delivery: the Party does not currently hold government, and every phase below is proposed.

  • Policy foundation · published
  • Strategy paper · forthcoming
  • Independent costing · forthcoming
  • Consultation report · forthcoming
  • Delivery evidence · forthcoming